* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/01/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 72 70 65 60 60 60 60 52 40 28 29 23 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 72 70 65 60 60 53 53 44 31 24 27 25 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 77 77 75 72 68 64 61 61 52 48 36 35 30 34 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 23 25 27 21 28 23 28 36 45 53 53 40 36 32 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 3 2 -1 -6 0 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 273 279 277 274 276 280 284 272 256 218 216 229 241 264 282 284 287 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 26.6 22.4 15.1 18.2 13.3 10.8 13.7 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 160 158 161 159 157 156 152 124 93 72 77 70 67 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 143 139 141 137 137 139 138 110 84 69 71 67 66 66 66 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 7 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 53 54 52 55 53 55 56 57 63 58 55 51 47 45 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 13 14 13 15 13 11 8 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -50 -46 -50 -61 -11 -43 -35 -56 -11 -25 -10 -57 -72 -34 -9 10 200 MB DIV 16 9 6 7 0 22 23 48 50 91 34 32 22 16 18 7 15 700-850 TADV 3 8 16 14 8 4 11 10 20 30 3 53 9 27 28 19 19 LAND (KM) 214 246 216 144 80 35 70 136 -21 85 38 -20 70 -101 246 635 1020 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.3 27.6 29.2 31.6 34.9 38.8 42.4 45.5 47.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.4 78.2 78.7 79.3 80.0 80.2 79.3 77.0 73.8 70.1 65.8 60.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 10 16 21 23 23 21 19 19 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 50 45 40 36 32 35 27 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -20. -24. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -8. -6. -10. -13. -18. -10. -11. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -15. -15. -15. -23. -35. -47. -46. -52. -56. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.5 76.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.15 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.58 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.37 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 501.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 12.5% 9.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 5.8% 4.3% 6.2% 2.6% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 6.3% 4.5% 4.8% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 4( 13) 2( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 75 74 72 70 65 60 60 53 53 44 31 24 27 25 22 DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 71 69 64 59 59 52 52 43 30 23 26 24 21 DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 67 62 57 57 50 50 41 28 21 24 22 19 DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 58 53 53 46 46 37 24 17 20 18 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT