* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 49 54 59 59 57 54 53 50 49 47 46 45 46 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 49 54 56 56 55 51 50 47 34 30 28 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 46 51 51 48 43 40 38 37 30 28 27 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 7 5 13 15 28 18 25 18 28 23 37 35 39 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 0 9 9 4 8 4 -2 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 179 232 260 244 241 234 251 247 248 253 254 249 252 245 251 233 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.3 28.6 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 152 156 155 160 148 145 150 151 153 154 149 155 158 164 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 146 152 156 155 160 145 139 140 139 137 136 128 132 132 137 144 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 61 60 54 50 44 48 48 54 50 52 50 57 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 19 19 20 21 19 17 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 99 95 86 80 66 46 32 0 -12 -44 -40 -67 -23 -33 3 -12 16 200 MB DIV 70 59 55 45 42 70 76 6 20 -20 25 11 11 4 47 29 51 700-850 TADV -13 -7 0 3 0 15 26 4 -9 -8 1 -3 0 1 1 4 -1 LAND (KM) 757 632 569 580 398 0 11 98 145 189 179 12 -60 -64 -25 22 -9 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.6 18.0 19.4 20.7 22.0 23.4 24.7 26.1 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.9 56.8 58.7 60.5 62.4 65.9 69.3 72.2 74.7 76.9 78.7 80.0 80.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 19 19 18 18 16 14 13 12 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 38 41 39 100 40 44 35 43 46 35 29 40 43 44 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -18. -19. -21. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 24. 24. 22. 19. 18. 15. 14. 12. 11. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.1 54.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.80 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.42 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.87 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.65 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 31.1% 16.8% 9.3% 8.6% 13.8% 19.2% 22.5% Logistic: 5.5% 25.1% 15.3% 2.5% 0.8% 2.5% 3.5% 2.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 10.5% 6.1% 0.6% 0.3% 3.2% 5.2% 1.0% Consensus: 4.8% 22.2% 12.7% 4.1% 3.2% 6.5% 9.3% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/28/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/28/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 49 54 56 56 55 51 50 47 34 30 28 29 26 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 49 51 51 50 46 45 42 29 25 23 24 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 43 45 45 44 40 39 36 23 19 17 18 15 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 36 36 35 31 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT