* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 48 44 44 45 48 48 48 46 45 44 43 41 39 36 35 V (KT) LAND 60 53 48 44 44 45 48 48 48 46 45 44 43 41 39 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 60 53 48 44 42 39 39 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 20 21 23 23 19 16 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 3 1 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 202 198 194 192 218 214 211 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 145 148 149 150 148 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 38 40 40 41 44 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -27 -35 -46 -49 -67 -67 -71 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 30 23 22 22 0 10 -4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 5 -1 2 6 2 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 287 476 668 868 1068 1458 1848 2246 2642 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.8 164.7 166.6 168.5 170.5 174.3 178.1 182.0 185.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 18 18 18 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 12 14 22 24 18 20 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -16. -15. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.9 162.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 554.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##