* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 71 66 65 58 56 53 51 45 44 43 41 40 38 35 32 V (KT) LAND 80 75 71 66 65 58 56 53 51 45 44 43 41 40 38 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 80 76 72 69 65 59 54 50 46 43 41 40 40 40 41 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 18 18 22 18 18 20 22 23 17 17 8 7 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 4 8 1 6 5 8 3 3 5 1 5 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 207 213 205 195 190 199 199 205 203 216 221 220 242 289 338 6 357 SST (C) 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.8 27.3 26.8 27.4 27.5 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 27.9 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 120 124 127 133 139 133 140 141 147 150 145 146 148 151 144 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 7 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 46 42 41 39 37 36 36 38 38 41 42 44 43 47 45 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 14 15 13 13 11 9 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -17 -17 -12 -9 -22 -31 -40 -42 -46 -52 -38 -58 -46 -78 -53 -74 200 MB DIV 17 28 31 37 38 20 21 26 8 11 -12 -12 -14 -3 -16 7 24 700-850 TADV 5 9 6 -5 -9 3 -2 0 -3 -6 -4 -2 -6 2 -6 4 0 LAND (KM) 288 176 116 50 30 84 385 732 1089 1445 1782 2100 2410 2711 2804 2556 2299 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.8 25.4 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.1 153.5 154.9 156.3 157.7 160.6 163.7 167.1 170.6 174.1 177.4 180.5 183.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 7 13 6 13 15 22 17 13 13 14 16 6 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -15. -22. -24. -27. -29. -35. -36. -37. -39. -40. -42. -45. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.1 152.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 739.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 -0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.3% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.8% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##