* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 31 32 35 40 44 46 51 55 61 65 69 70 73 75 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 31 32 35 40 44 46 51 55 61 65 69 70 73 75 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 28 27 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 13 12 8 13 8 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 5 5 6 3 3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 240 278 299 298 274 269 243 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 148 148 148 148 149 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 149 149 148 148 148 148 149 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 11 9 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 52 52 56 60 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 25 16 30 23 28 37 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 11 9 15 17 51 31 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -6 -6 1 5 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 454 396 344 195 92 189 218 153 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.6 12.4 13.0 13.5 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.8 56.2 57.7 59.2 60.8 64.1 67.5 70.6 73.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 17 16 16 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 44 54 43 32 29 50 75 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -3. -0. 5. 9. 11. 16. 20. 26. 30. 34. 35. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.9 54.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.85 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.4% 8.2% 6.4% 6.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 12.2% 7.5% 5.4% 4.0% 5.8% 6.3% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 8.7% 5.4% 3.9% 3.4% 4.9% 2.1% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 31 31 32 35 40 44 46 51 55 61 65 69 70 73 75 18HR AGO 35 34 32 32 33 36 41 45 47 52 56 62 66 70 71 74 76 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 35 40 44 46 51 55 61 65 69 70 73 75 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 34 38 40 45 49 55 59 63 64 67 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT