* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082020 07/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 38 40 41 43 46 46 50 47 49 51 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 38 40 41 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 42 43 37 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 10 12 9 15 12 17 12 19 11 16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -2 1 -1 1 -1 2 -2 2 -4 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 3 337 7 25 324 18 348 20 321 348 312 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.0 30.1 30.2 29.4 28.9 28.4 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 156 158 163 163 150 169 169 156 147 140 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 136 137 141 140 129 144 144 132 125 119 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 66 69 64 70 65 67 63 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 6 6 5 3 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 9 -9 -2 19 0 26 20 18 31 31 34 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 11 -21 -7 24 -17 27 10 33 33 24 35 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -4 -7 -3 -8 -4 -3 0 -1 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 345 316 298 295 268 155 61 -49 -142 -230 -331 -423 -519 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.3 91.0 91.8 92.6 93.4 94.9 96.5 97.9 98.9 99.8 100.8 101.7 102.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 27 23 25 37 42 18 34 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -14. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 16. 16. 20. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.0 90.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.77 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.80 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 21.0% 12.2% 9.5% 8.4% 12.0% 13.4% 22.0% Logistic: 18.3% 48.0% 39.0% 26.8% 12.5% 32.9% 41.3% 28.4% Bayesian: 4.3% 18.5% 8.4% 2.1% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 9.0% Consensus: 10.0% 29.2% 19.9% 12.8% 7.1% 15.5% 18.4% 19.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 38 40 41 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 36 38 31 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 31 33 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 23 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT