* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 108 111 113 111 104 91 78 70 59 51 46 42 39 37 36 34 V (KT) LAND 100 108 111 113 111 104 91 78 70 59 51 46 42 39 37 36 34 V (KT) LGEM 100 108 111 109 105 91 78 68 59 51 45 41 39 37 35 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 2 1 2 5 9 12 19 24 27 25 26 27 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 4 3 -1 -4 -1 1 0 0 2 3 4 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 5 15 342 51 62 350 257 260 235 245 249 258 259 258 246 258 262 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.8 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.4 26.0 26.1 27.0 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 142 144 129 124 118 119 125 126 136 141 143 144 145 148 157 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 62 62 60 56 50 47 42 40 40 40 44 46 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 23 23 23 19 18 18 15 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 46 37 23 16 13 2 2 -2 -3 -7 -3 -3 -14 -20 -29 -23 -26 200 MB DIV 72 43 20 28 31 24 13 1 16 -2 -2 -1 -7 -3 1 15 17 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -2 2 3 4 8 8 7 7 6 2 -3 1 3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 2412 2241 2071 1896 1722 1365 1012 679 366 89 40 112 356 690 1017 1356 1685 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.2 16.4 17.6 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.8 136.2 137.7 139.2 142.3 145.4 148.4 151.3 154.1 157.1 160.4 163.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 13 7 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 11 15 16 11 13 21 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -8. -16. -24. -30. -35. -38. -39. -40. -40. -41. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -3. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 11. 13. 11. 4. -9. -22. -30. -41. -49. -54. -58. -60. -63. -64. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 12.8 133.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.83 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.66 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.32 -2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 53.0% 29.1% 24.2% 21.4% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.3% 10.2% 11.6% 7.7% 2.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.7% 13.2% 11.9% 9.7% 5.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##