* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 69 72 75 81 80 83 87 87 85 87 89 93 95 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 69 72 75 81 80 83 87 87 85 87 89 93 95 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 64 68 71 78 82 83 84 85 87 85 85 87 91 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 3 8 9 7 5 9 8 10 2 10 8 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 4 4 4 0 0 9 6 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 18 16 288 286 304 293 328 277 314 276 330 245 284 269 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 146 146 146 146 147 149 154 149 150 151 152 155 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 146 146 146 146 147 149 154 149 150 151 151 154 157 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 53 54 53 57 58 58 61 63 62 61 63 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 14 11 12 13 11 9 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 29 29 31 26 19 34 35 58 54 69 62 59 44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 -5 2 -4 1 25 39 51 32 41 44 39 17 27 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -8 -9 -7 9 7 16 19 21 8 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 847 778 709 645 599 574 443 184 256 356 302 268 231 101 208 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 15.2 16.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.5 48.7 50.0 51.3 54.0 57.0 60.1 63.1 66.0 68.9 71.6 74.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 16 15 15 15 14 13 14 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 31 31 36 38 35 59 41 43 48 63 73 114 48 99 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -0. -4. -4. -3. -7. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 26. 25. 29. 32. 32. 30. 32. 34. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 9.9 46.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.78 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.61 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.60 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 29.1% 17.0% 11.7% 9.2% 20.4% 21.9% 26.2% Logistic: 7.9% 22.4% 19.0% 10.8% 3.9% 10.2% 8.9% 14.3% Bayesian: 4.3% 10.8% 8.1% 1.5% 0.6% 2.7% 3.6% 2.0% Consensus: 6.7% 20.8% 14.7% 8.0% 4.6% 11.1% 11.5% 14.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 66 69 72 75 81 80 83 87 87 85 87 89 93 95 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 64 67 70 76 75 78 82 82 80 82 84 88 90 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 57 60 63 69 68 71 75 75 73 75 77 81 83 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 51 54 60 59 62 66 66 64 66 68 72 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT