* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 63 66 71 74 79 82 81 85 87 85 87 90 94 96 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 63 66 71 74 79 82 81 85 87 85 87 90 94 96 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 63 67 75 81 84 87 89 90 90 88 89 93 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 6 4 15 7 12 4 13 6 10 2 7 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 1 3 6 0 0 2 2 3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 11 6 3 296 314 304 322 300 311 277 314 161 239 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.5 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 146 148 148 147 147 151 154 151 151 148 148 146 157 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 146 148 148 147 147 151 154 151 151 148 148 145 156 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 11 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 52 53 54 56 59 60 60 63 61 59 60 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 13 13 11 12 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 24 22 22 21 21 20 21 39 44 53 60 75 57 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 11 -6 0 -5 -6 23 38 35 30 46 26 18 19 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -6 -7 -9 0 3 11 19 10 9 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 917 838 762 686 625 545 480 240 200 327 283 253 300 183 222 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.5 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.4 46.6 47.8 49.0 50.3 53.0 55.9 59.0 62.3 65.6 68.5 71.1 73.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 16 13 13 14 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 34 32 33 39 36 44 46 42 44 69 64 95 38 108 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 21. 24. 29. 32. 31. 35. 37. 35. 37. 40. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.9 45.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 8.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.83 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.66 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 38.1% 25.7% 19.9% 11.6% 26.7% 25.9% 30.3% Logistic: 8.9% 35.5% 36.4% 27.0% 9.6% 19.7% 10.4% 14.4% Bayesian: 1.7% 10.3% 6.2% 0.5% 0.2% 2.8% 1.6% 1.8% Consensus: 8.1% 28.0% 22.8% 15.8% 7.1% 16.4% 12.6% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 59 63 66 71 74 79 82 81 85 87 85 87 90 94 96 18HR AGO 50 49 54 58 61 66 69 74 77 76 80 82 80 82 85 89 91 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 58 61 66 69 68 72 74 72 74 77 81 83 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 48 51 56 59 58 62 64 62 64 67 71 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT