* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 75 83 87 84 75 67 59 54 48 43 39 35 33 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 75 83 87 84 75 67 59 54 48 43 39 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 61 63 68 72 72 67 62 56 51 45 40 35 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 6 1 0 2 1 5 5 9 14 16 22 24 27 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 341 327 317 310 357 189 69 59 338 305 271 270 262 260 246 247 242 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 25.3 25.7 25.3 25.2 25.7 26.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 147 145 143 140 118 122 118 116 122 126 138 141 142 148 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 70 70 66 62 60 57 54 50 47 43 42 43 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 17 17 17 19 19 16 15 13 13 11 9 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 42 53 54 53 44 28 6 7 2 -3 0 -1 -5 -7 -14 -27 -23 200 MB DIV 61 45 36 42 71 52 34 26 -16 13 -1 -14 -2 -7 2 -10 14 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 1 8 8 1 -2 2 3 0 3 -1 -2 -1 1 LAND (KM) 2027 2119 2215 2296 2367 2368 2043 1718 1392 1073 772 476 153 99 244 435 767 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.7 15.1 16.3 17.3 18.1 18.6 18.9 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.3 128.5 129.7 130.9 133.4 136.1 138.9 141.8 144.7 147.5 150.3 153.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 14 16 17 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 11 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 21 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 2. 0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 28. 32. 29. 20. 12. 4. -1. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.1 126.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 9.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.46 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.74 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 9.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 7.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 58.8% 41.0% 26.6% 18.3% 35.5% 31.2% 13.5% Logistic: 23.6% 50.6% 39.0% 26.9% 15.3% 23.9% 6.6% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.7% 15.6% 4.7% 2.5% 0.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 14.0% 41.7% 28.2% 18.7% 11.3% 20.4% 12.6% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##