* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 66 70 75 76 75 72 68 62 58 54 51 49 48 47 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 66 70 75 76 75 72 68 62 58 54 51 49 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 71 75 80 79 73 65 56 49 44 39 35 31 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 5 5 8 5 7 5 6 7 8 12 9 15 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -3 -3 0 0 1 3 2 0 2 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 42 35 10 351 345 305 254 264 176 190 165 184 212 234 233 262 276 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.7 25.9 26.2 25.7 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 149 149 147 147 142 143 124 127 122 121 126 126 133 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 69 70 70 69 63 62 59 56 52 49 43 40 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 10 11 13 14 15 14 14 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 16 23 39 47 59 46 30 0 -9 -10 -8 -9 -7 -13 -7 -10 -10 200 MB DIV 35 30 38 39 33 19 37 14 14 -2 -19 -24 -24 -18 -18 -27 -19 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 2 4 1 3 4 5 5 1 4 3 1 3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1665 1769 1876 1980 2088 2291 2424 2217 1909 1606 1300 1004 682 342 154 451 609 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.3 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.2 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.4 124.5 125.8 127.0 129.6 132.1 134.8 137.5 140.2 143.0 145.8 148.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 12 12 11 10 14 8 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 20. 25. 26. 25. 22. 18. 12. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.1 122.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.66 11.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 11.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.71 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 8.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.47 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.87 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.2% 49.2% 43.4% 36.7% 20.8% 40.6% 41.3% 18.9% Logistic: 15.9% 30.1% 30.5% 18.1% 14.5% 14.5% 13.7% 14.8% Bayesian: 7.9% 12.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 2.9% 2.3% 0.0% Consensus: 18.0% 30.5% 25.7% 18.6% 12.1% 19.3% 19.1% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##