* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082020 07/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 52 59 63 64 63 64 60 57 52 48 47 45 43 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 52 59 63 64 63 64 60 57 52 48 47 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 57 56 53 49 44 39 36 32 28 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 6 4 4 5 5 6 8 10 13 14 13 14 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 44 44 25 11 10 313 278 237 192 180 151 174 198 242 248 261 267 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.6 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 147 149 151 150 148 144 139 132 131 124 122 121 125 129 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 66 66 68 71 69 67 62 60 54 50 47 42 38 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 11 11 12 12 13 12 10 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 20 34 44 52 34 19 -6 -13 -9 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -14 200 MB DIV 59 28 26 31 18 12 22 18 -1 4 6 -11 -24 -16 -12 -24 -16 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 5 3 2 0 2 3 3 1 1 4 3 6 4 1 LAND (KM) 1571 1669 1769 1870 1974 2191 2391 2360 2054 1760 1468 1155 803 427 158 357 519 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.0 12.6 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.1 123.1 124.3 125.5 128.2 131.0 133.7 136.4 139.0 141.6 144.4 147.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 14 13 14 15 17 18 18 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 26 16 11 11 12 11 13 11 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 6 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 28. 29. 28. 29. 25. 22. 17. 13. 12. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 121.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 EIGHT 07/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.72 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.72 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 24.2% 20.1% 16.5% 12.0% 22.5% 20.0% 20.4% Logistic: 6.9% 27.1% 21.8% 12.2% 10.0% 17.9% 17.7% 26.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 11.1% 1.6% 0.5% 1.1% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 6.9% 20.8% 14.5% 9.7% 7.7% 14.4% 13.0% 15.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 EIGHT 07/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##