* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 30 27 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 0 6 11 12 11 12 14 14 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 1 -1 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 14 222 243 265 259 260 261 283 290 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 23.1 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.8 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.1 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 94 90 88 88 91 86 91 96 94 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 55 53 51 50 45 42 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 17 14 12 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 66 67 57 56 38 27 16 13 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -14 -19 -17 -20 -12 -21 0 -20 -11 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 10 16 4 3 15 1 10 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1118 1191 1271 1357 1447 1649 1825 1958 1821 1566 1328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.9 125.1 126.2 127.4 129.9 132.4 135.0 137.6 140.2 142.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -21. -23. -21. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -15. -21. -27. -35. -42. -48. -52. -54. -56. -57. -57. -59. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.6 122.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##