* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 60 60 54 49 43 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 60 60 54 49 43 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 58 55 48 40 35 30 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 7 6 4 4 4 12 12 10 10 10 12 23 36 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 9 SHEAR DIR 57 55 35 37 32 41 346 264 262 259 268 294 319 313 293 262 276 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.8 25.7 24.5 23.4 22.9 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 133 121 109 98 92 87 88 88 88 95 100 104 108 113 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 76 75 73 72 70 64 61 56 52 50 48 44 38 30 27 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 24 25 23 21 19 18 15 13 10 8 6 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 35 45 46 41 39 47 57 61 73 58 51 37 39 26 22 11 11 200 MB DIV 53 30 26 37 14 12 8 -23 -18 -13 -30 -27 -35 -24 -11 4 1 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 -7 -5 5 -3 7 6 2 13 2 7 5 4 2 4 LAND (KM) 529 555 611 652 708 904 1069 1260 1487 1718 1884 1925 1633 1334 1038 750 481 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.6 114.8 116.1 117.4 120.2 123.0 125.6 128.3 130.9 133.7 136.5 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -28. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -0. -6. -11. -17. -24. -32. -38. -44. -49. -52. -54. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.7 112.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 6.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##