* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052020 07/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 41 48 50 50 48 45 40 35 30 25 22 21 21 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 41 48 50 50 48 45 40 35 30 25 22 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 27 28 30 29 34 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 246 246 237 232 232 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.9 23.9 23.7 23.1 18.0 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 110 103 102 98 80 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 101 95 94 91 75 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.5 -55.7 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 62 60 56 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 13 13 16 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 17 36 51 58 74 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 24 39 40 68 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 10 35 25 38 34 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 994 954 908 817 707 837 1228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.0 36.5 37.9 39.4 40.8 44.0 47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.9 59.1 56.3 53.0 49.8 43.1 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 27 28 29 29 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 20 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 3. -5. -12. -18. -25. -30. -36. -44. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 18. 20. 20. 18. 15. 10. 5. 0. -5. -8. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.0 61.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.21 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.43 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.36 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 7.6% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052020 FIVE 07/05/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 41 48 50 50 48 45 40 35 30 25 22 21 21 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 45 47 47 45 42 37 32 27 22 19 18 18 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 39 41 41 39 36 31 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 31 31 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT