* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052020 07/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 43 49 49 48 45 43 40 37 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 43 49 49 48 45 43 40 37 34 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 21 22 21 31 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -4 -1 -4 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 261 259 255 242 251 229 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.5 24.5 24.0 23.8 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 108 104 105 103 102 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 97 97 94 96 94 93 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -55.8 -56.3 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 5 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 58 59 61 64 66 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 8 8 7 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 21 19 18 15 28 59 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 3 18 36 45 36 62 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 9 12 4 10 -19 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 929 1024 1028 990 929 749 847 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.3 33.1 34.2 35.2 37.8 40.4 43.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.0 66.5 65.0 63.1 61.3 56.0 49.8 43.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 17 19 22 26 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -2. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -30. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 13. 19. 20. 18. 15. 13. 10. 7. 4. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 68.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052020 FIVE 07/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.56 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.37 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.7% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052020 FIVE 07/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052020 FIVE 07/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 43 43 49 49 48 45 43 40 37 34 33 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 40 40 46 46 45 42 40 37 34 31 30 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 35 35 41 41 40 37 35 32 29 26 25 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 27 33 33 32 29 27 24 21 18 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT