* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP032020 06/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 16 17 17 18 20 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 16 17 17 18 20 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 13 14 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 6 3 0 -4 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 179 168 162 160 193 247 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.7 26.6 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 126 125 126 130 130 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 42 40 40 42 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -13 -29 -41 -47 -48 -59 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 18 1 -26 -17 -5 19 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1795 1737 1679 1614 1550 1380 1227 1079 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.6 140.2 140.7 141.4 142.0 143.9 145.9 148.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 1 4 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -14. -13. -13. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 139.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032020 BORIS 06/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.5% 3.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 BORIS 06/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##