* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP032020 06/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 24 22 21 19 18 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 24 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 24 22 21 19 18 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 12 9 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 7 8 4 0 -4 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 185 184 172 155 161 195 255 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 129 127 130 133 132 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 50 47 44 40 40 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 -4 -13 -28 -38 -35 -51 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 19 28 26 4 -13 -5 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1923 1858 1792 1727 1662 1523 1366 1216 1096 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.0 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.7 139.3 139.9 140.5 141.1 142.6 144.5 146.5 148.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 2 1 3 18 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 138.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032020 BORIS 06/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.18 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.82 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 12.5% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 3.3% 3.3% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 BORIS 06/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##