* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032020 06/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 6 8 11 12 12 14 13 11 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 3 4 5 4 2 -2 -6 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 269 265 225 203 204 197 193 213 241 262 291 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.7 26.2 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 137 136 136 135 132 126 129 133 131 126 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 60 59 58 56 52 45 42 42 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 6 4 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 35 39 44 39 8 -19 -40 -43 -40 -33 -17 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -5 15 26 39 11 0 -12 8 -1 -4 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -9 -8 -3 0 0 2 0 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2402 2331 2260 2196 2132 2010 1878 1726 1567 1392 1220 1089 996 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.1 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.4 135.0 135.6 136.1 136.6 137.5 138.6 140.0 141.7 143.7 145.9 148.1 150.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 12 13 9 4 1 2 5 7 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. -14. -11. -9. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 134.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.74 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.58 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.37 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 17.7% 12.9% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.7% 4.8% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 THREE 06/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##