* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 55 56 59 58 56 56 52 53 49 43 39 37 33 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 55 56 47 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 52 54 45 33 29 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 8 4 7 15 15 19 20 51 60 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -1 3 4 -2 -1 0 -2 2 10 4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 207 182 150 194 313 233 240 247 219 196 205 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.3 27.7 27.9 1.8 5.0 3.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 130 129 123 119 118 135 139 67 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 117 116 114 107 104 103 117 122 N/A 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -49.8 -49.9 -49.5 -50.4 -49.0 -46.8 -45.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.2 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 11 5 12 0 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 63 59 51 44 41 44 49 53 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 30 29 29 27 27 25 21 21 24 32 37 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 71 75 84 102 74 34 -35 31 63 90 273 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 79 67 72 64 22 26 42 119 93 101 89 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 13 6 3 1 1 10 -8 15 8 -9 23 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 120 229 339 435 334 124 -48 -228 -529 -886 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.1 28.0 29.8 32.0 34.9 38.3 42.6 47.7 52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.1 90.2 90.2 90.3 90.4 91.0 91.7 92.0 91.3 89.5 86.7 83.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 13 16 20 25 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 16 20 23 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. -1. -10. -19. -23. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -8. -10. -7. 4. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 16. 19. 18. 16. 16. 12. 13. 9. 3. -1. -3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.2 90.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.62 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.48 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.48 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.53 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 25.8% 15.0% 9.6% 8.4% 12.0% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 14.1% 8.6% 2.7% 0.5% 3.6% 3.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 13.5% 8.0% 4.2% 3.0% 5.2% 5.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 53 55 56 47 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 50 51 42 28 24 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 43 34 20 16 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT