* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 31 40 50 58 62 59 54 55 51 54 60 57 51 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 31 41 49 53 50 39 31 28 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 30 33 36 37 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 12 12 13 17 8 10 16 17 19 13 9 10 27 53 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 2 1 3 1 9 -1 3 -3 -5 -2 5 15 2 2 SHEAR DIR 304 298 294 283 289 236 208 198 218 203 232 244 322 269 220 211 220 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.5 29.0 27.4 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.1 27.8 27.7 25.8 21.6 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 169 170 151 129 131 126 123 123 115 135 134 114 87 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 165 169 169 165 139 116 118 112 108 107 100 116 114 98 78 74 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -51.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -50.8 -50.7 -49.8 -49.5 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 7 6 8 6 9 4 9 3 9 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 83 81 82 80 78 77 69 65 59 50 49 52 54 52 46 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 15 16 21 24 26 25 21 17 17 13 15 22 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 107 121 130 122 128 122 102 108 109 64 21 9 66 64 51 35 14 200 MB DIV 72 74 76 110 146 122 78 77 29 40 19 32 51 67 3 0 13 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 3 5 7 5 6 10 5 -1 6 -5 35 29 -47 -28 LAND (KM) -111 -93 -85 -68 -33 3 179 374 315 115 -46 -285 -491 -707 -942 -849 -736 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.1 20.7 22.6 24.4 26.3 28.2 30.2 32.4 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.2 91.0 90.7 90.5 90.4 90.4 90.6 90.7 90.9 91.3 91.7 92.1 91.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 24 37 33 8 19 11 2 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 2. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 6. 9. 8. 2. -4. -6. -11. -9. -0. 4. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 10. 20. 28. 32. 29. 24. 25. 21. 24. 30. 27. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 91.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.54 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 30.0 to 128.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.62 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.89 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 16.1% 9.9% 6.5% 6.4% 10.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 38.1% 20.7% 9.5% 4.9% 8.2% 13.1% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Consensus: 2.8% 18.1% 10.2% 5.4% 3.8% 6.1% 8.2% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 31 41 49 53 50 39 31 28 27 28 29 30 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 31 41 49 53 50 39 31 28 27 28 29 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 29 39 47 51 48 37 29 26 25 26 27 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 34 42 46 43 32 24 21 20 21 22 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT