* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 37 45 54 62 65 62 58 55 50 47 45 41 42 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 28 27 38 47 50 47 42 31 28 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 28 28 27 34 37 39 39 38 30 28 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 15 16 11 11 13 6 13 14 19 11 9 2 36 53 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 7 1 9 1 4 -2 -2 5 9 8 5 4 SHEAR DIR 298 301 299 292 280 276 208 174 216 208 211 214 311 112 200 207 216 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.5 29.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 26.8 27.1 26.8 26.2 27.8 26.7 24.1 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 169 170 161 131 131 130 122 125 122 116 135 123 101 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 162 163 164 149 118 118 115 107 109 105 99 116 106 89 75 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.4 -49.6 -50.3 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 9 4 9 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 84 81 81 82 80 76 72 67 62 54 50 51 50 53 48 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 20 24 27 27 22 19 17 12 10 12 15 25 850 MB ENV VOR 100 99 113 121 127 125 99 108 104 97 35 30 20 71 27 32 1 200 MB DIV 54 61 67 71 95 127 84 100 44 44 47 31 47 38 10 17 -3 700-850 TADV -3 1 3 3 4 11 7 7 16 1 6 -5 15 32 -30 -24 -32 LAND (KM) -67 -61 -57 -39 -34 -6 112 310 381 175 7 -174 -385 -597 -857 -969 -826 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.5 18.9 20.3 22.0 23.8 25.7 27.6 29.5 31.4 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.3 91.1 90.9 90.6 90.4 90.5 90.7 90.9 91.2 91.6 92.1 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 14 17 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 13 41 42 37 8 14 17 3 3 1 0 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. 26. 25. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. -0. -7. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 5. 9. 8. 2. -3. -7. -14. -17. -15. -11. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 2. 10. 19. 27. 30. 27. 23. 20. 15. 12. 10. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 91.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.97 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.66 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.49 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.89 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 17.0% 10.7% 7.6% 7.5% 10.9% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 36.6% 21.3% 9.9% 6.2% 9.8% 11.6% 12.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 3.8% 18.0% 10.7% 5.9% 4.6% 6.9% 7.8% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 29 28 27 38 47 50 47 42 31 28 27 28 29 30 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 30 29 40 49 52 49 44 33 30 29 30 31 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 28 39 48 51 48 43 32 29 28 29 30 31 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 34 43 46 43 38 27 24 23 24 25 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT