* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 42 42 41 42 46 53 59 65 67 64 58 54 54 51 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 42 42 34 37 41 48 55 60 62 59 53 43 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 35 37 42 47 52 55 56 54 53 47 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 7 10 10 5 18 10 17 6 12 14 24 22 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 5 4 3 3 -1 5 1 11 1 3 -4 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 277 287 304 309 306 326 325 273 227 237 206 238 218 237 248 270 267 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.3 28.2 27.6 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.5 27.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 158 158 160 163 166 165 155 138 131 131 126 124 130 124 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 139 140 142 144 148 148 140 124 118 117 110 108 113 107 100 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -49.9 -49.8 -50.0 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 10 8 12 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 80 79 81 79 80 79 74 69 61 56 51 51 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 17 15 14 13 14 17 21 25 25 22 19 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 78 86 84 87 94 102 130 127 135 136 128 124 118 80 72 7 41 200 MB DIV 84 86 46 48 33 42 59 98 95 99 73 39 69 37 8 22 36 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 -3 0 0 0 -3 3 6 6 15 2 5 -6 5 41 LAND (KM) 70 59 48 29 11 -11 0 39 81 96 216 420 309 163 -22 -212 -440 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.6 19.1 20.1 21.2 22.8 24.7 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.5 92.4 92.2 92.0 91.6 91.3 91.2 91.1 91.2 91.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 4 6 7 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 24 25 28 31 34 34 28 15 9 19 8 4 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -7. -2. 2. 2. -4. -9. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 11. 18. 24. 30. 32. 29. 23. 19. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.2 92.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.62 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.76 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.76 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.91 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 25.5% 13.4% 9.4% 8.5% 11.8% 13.7% 23.5% Logistic: 13.3% 54.8% 37.6% 28.9% 17.5% 31.6% 38.4% 57.5% Bayesian: 3.6% 15.4% 4.1% 6.1% 1.1% 1.6% 0.3% 15.5% Consensus: 8.0% 31.9% 18.4% 14.8% 9.0% 15.0% 17.4% 32.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 42 42 34 37 41 48 55 60 62 59 53 43 33 29 18HR AGO 35 34 38 38 38 30 33 37 44 51 56 58 55 49 39 29 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 23 26 30 37 44 49 51 48 42 32 22 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 17 20 24 31 38 43 45 42 36 26 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT