* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 56 52 47 42 41 39 37 35 34 33 32 32 28 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 56 52 47 42 41 39 37 35 34 33 32 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 55 51 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 19 20 30 46 52 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 6 12 2 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 253 241 230 224 242 240 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.4 25.2 24.5 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 130 121 111 106 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 124 122 114 105 100 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 41 36 32 31 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 18 19 20 19 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 11 19 43 43 29 18 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 71 111 100 88 38 27 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 15 27 25 5 -24 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 593 706 820 1007 1194 1676 1704 1506 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.7 25.8 28.5 31.7 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 60.8 60.1 58.8 57.4 53.6 49.0 44.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 14 17 19 23 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 24 22 21 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -16. -21. -25. -29. -31. -33. -36. -39. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 2. -3. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.9 61.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.26 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.58 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.7% 8.5% 6.6% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.1% 3.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 56 56 52 47 42 41 39 37 35 34 33 32 32 28 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 53 49 44 39 38 36 34 32 31 30 29 29 25 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 48 44 39 34 33 31 29 27 26 25 24 24 20 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 36 31 26 25 23 21 19 18 17 16 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT