* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 79 72 61 46 39 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 83 79 72 61 46 39 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 76 68 60 49 40 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 26 33 45 50 52 14 33 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 11 9 9 0 2 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 193 192 192 203 211 271 317 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 23.9 22.7 20.2 18.3 15.4 14.7 13.7 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 104 97 87 82 75 71 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 97 91 82 77 71 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -51.9 -51.7 -53.6 -56.1 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 2.2 3.5 1.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 38 38 37 38 47 47 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 46 44 45 41 43 43 30 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 93 87 74 72 108 91 58 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 135 130 107 70 92 34 -53 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 38 0 -43 -42 -5 -51 36 26 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1814 1832 1879 1559 1302 630 262 104 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 38.1 40.2 42.8 45.4 50.5 53.9 55.4 56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.8 34.1 31.4 28.3 25.1 19.0 14.0 9.7 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 30 32 35 34 28 19 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 22 CX,CY: 14/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -24. -34. -44. -51. -56. -60. -64. -67. -69. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -8. -12. -20. -21. -21. -27. -27. -27. -30. -34. -37. -40. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -3. -5. -22. -42. -45. -47. -48. -48. -46. -45. -42. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -13. -24. -39. -46. -69.-103.-110.-116.-122.-124.-127.-128.-130.-134. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 35.9 36.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 522.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 0( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 79 72 61 46 39 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 80 73 62 47 40 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 74 63 48 41 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 64 49 42 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 51 44 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 56 49 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT