* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 46 48 48 49 50 50 51 54 56 57 58 57 57 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 32 34 35 36 36 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 37 33 30 29 32 31 29 28 24 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 12 13 12 11 8 5 6 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 3 2 1 0 5 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 106 101 87 86 83 101 144 124 162 259 182 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.8 29.3 29.7 29.9 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 154 159 163 164 167 164 160 159 158 155 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.4 -53.5 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 6 7 4 5 3 5 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 77 73 65 54 47 47 49 49 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 90 121 116 104 69 57 22 29 13 2 -7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 129 153 143 93 58 41 13 16 18 24 3 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 -15 -17 -6 -4 0 0 -1 1 2 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 22 -33 -69 -96 12 75 67 36 22 -15 -54 -31 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.1 22.8 24.2 25.3 26.2 27.0 27.6 28.1 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.5 103.4 104.4 105.4 107.0 108.3 109.1 109.5 109.8 110.0 110.3 110.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 4 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 16 15 23 27 27 28 29 29 26 24 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 101.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.83 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.11 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.80 -6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.38 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 23.1% 19.4% 15.9% 0.0% 22.3% 20.4% 52.6% Logistic: 1.4% 13.0% 4.9% 3.1% 0.7% 5.8% 2.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 4.3% 12.4% 8.3% 6.4% 0.2% 9.4% 7.7% 17.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##