* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 37 34 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 37 34 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 39 38 36 35 34 33 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 12 14 16 20 29 25 33 34 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 285 295 280 263 272 278 290 306 317 323 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.8 26.4 26.8 26.6 25.8 25.3 26.1 25.9 26.6 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 111 117 122 120 112 107 114 112 119 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 94 100 104 103 97 92 95 94 99 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -54.4 -55.0 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 50 47 46 43 42 41 39 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 15 13 12 10 8 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 39 53 47 37 19 3 -7 -2 -24 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 5 12 5 19 6 38 10 -23 -39 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 -10 -4 1 0 11 -2 4 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 810 819 835 897 966 1078 1114 1154 1234 1305 1388 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.4 32.8 33.6 34.2 34.6 34.6 34.4 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.1 68.5 67.9 66.8 65.8 63.2 60.7 58.6 56.9 55.2 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 10 10 11 10 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 11 5 0 0 1 0 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. -29. -29. -28. -28. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -16. -20. -26. -32. -35. -37. -39. -39. -39. -39. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.9 69.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.54 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.92 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.24 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.60 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.2% 9.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.2% 3.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 40 38 37 34 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 40 39 36 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 38 35 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT