* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 50 50 48 42 34 28 22 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 21 V (KT) LAND 45 49 50 50 48 42 34 28 22 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 50 49 42 34 28 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 13 20 22 24 18 19 19 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 1 4 1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 191 173 193 211 211 217 223 261 286 322 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 135 133 132 128 127 128 133 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 61 62 59 50 44 41 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 73 61 57 38 13 -8 9 17 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 77 56 50 53 45 37 24 8 7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 12 15 5 0 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2092 2008 1925 1849 1775 1621 1489 1383 1302 1236 1173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.5 19.1 19.2 18.9 18.3 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.5 136.2 136.9 137.5 138.1 139.4 140.6 141.6 142.4 143.1 143.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 14 19 16 4 2 2 4 13 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -14. -17. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -11. -17. -23. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. -23. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 135.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.32 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 27.1% 21.3% 17.3% 12.2% 20.2% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 7.5% 4.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 11.8% 8.8% 6.6% 4.5% 6.9% 5.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##