* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/21/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 37 37 39 40 39 39 35 32 30 28 28 26 27 26 V (KT) LAND 45 41 39 37 37 39 40 39 39 35 32 30 28 28 26 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 36 35 33 33 32 30 26 23 21 20 20 19 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 9 9 2 13 14 6 4 5 14 19 20 19 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 9 8 -1 -7 -4 0 0 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 211 136 320 16 36 147 176 182 135 172 281 277 284 290 289 270 278 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 128 129 133 134 134 133 128 127 130 130 129 130 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 48 50 55 57 58 59 52 45 41 38 38 38 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 14 15 13 13 10 8 7 7 8 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 15 21 34 68 68 64 24 10 11 35 59 72 42 57 48 200 MB DIV -16 -35 -20 -11 0 19 58 68 -4 29 8 23 30 32 12 7 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 3 4 0 0 -3 -2 2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1979 2051 2122 2196 2258 2146 2039 1938 1849 1767 1691 1621 1539 1478 1417 1356 1306 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 17.9 17.6 17.2 16.8 16.2 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.5 18.7 18.5 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.3 131.9 132.5 133.0 133.6 134.8 135.8 136.6 137.3 138.0 138.7 139.4 140.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 5 5 6 5 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 10 11 11 10 14 17 5 3 4 4 4 6 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -5. -6. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -19. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.2 131.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/21/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.08 0.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.62 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.16 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.0% 13.4% 10.3% 7.8% 15.8% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.3% 4.7% 3.5% 2.6% 5.3% 4.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/21/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##