* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 50 47 40 34 28 26 26 26 26 25 24 21 19 17 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 50 47 40 34 28 26 26 26 26 25 24 21 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 50 47 40 34 29 25 22 20 19 19 18 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 28 27 28 21 17 17 9 2 7 5 4 6 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 2 -1 -2 1 5 3 -1 -2 -5 -6 0 -4 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 67 76 75 77 95 94 124 172 308 322 293 344 201 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 27.7 26.0 25.7 25.4 24.8 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 154 155 152 141 123 118 115 108 105 104 102 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 60 57 49 41 32 26 19 17 17 18 21 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 16 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 51 67 70 60 69 43 51 45 17 44 53 47 29 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 74 68 47 34 20 -16 11 -9 -11 -12 -20 -37 -21 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -1 0 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 551 517 458 407 368 381 390 439 481 533 602 692 778 855 934 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.9 22.0 23.1 23.9 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.3 110.4 111.0 111.5 113.0 114.6 116.2 117.4 118.4 119.4 120.4 121.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 14 12 12 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -21. -27. -29. -29. -29. -29. -30. -31. -34. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.7 110.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##