* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 68 69 68 68 68 69 71 72 72 71 77 83 94 89 V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 68 69 68 68 68 69 71 72 72 71 77 83 94 89 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 72 74 76 74 72 72 73 73 69 66 66 70 72 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 15 15 19 20 20 12 17 20 32 30 33 32 40 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 4 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 2 3 0 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 296 312 323 316 320 335 334 318 293 274 270 260 270 247 239 267 252 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.1 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.7 27.7 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 152 155 154 159 160 163 162 153 158 151 144 148 134 125 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 150 154 151 156 153 153 149 136 139 132 125 128 114 106 101 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.6 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 47 46 48 48 50 56 70 74 73 66 56 51 46 51 47 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 14 14 12 12 10 10 12 13 14 14 19 26 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR 33 23 17 11 6 9 7 3 5 13 2 9 5 78 152 208 184 200 MB DIV 3 5 29 35 35 12 15 31 35 64 42 43 64 83 67 62 -1 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 1 2 1 -1 10 3 11 11 12 13 19 14 17 24 LAND (KM) 1059 969 900 854 783 482 294 356 436 581 754 947 947 955 1001 906 773 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.4 17.9 19.1 20.4 21.7 23.2 24.9 26.5 28.2 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.6 54.0 55.4 56.8 58.3 61.2 64.0 66.3 68.0 69.3 69.7 69.2 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 15 15 15 13 12 11 9 9 9 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 38 48 46 40 58 75 76 53 48 50 29 21 40 11 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -8. -1. 7. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 17. 23. 34. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.7 52.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.59 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.61 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 476.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.38 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 26.7% 16.5% 11.4% 9.5% 12.4% 13.8% 19.7% Logistic: 11.7% 18.3% 19.5% 13.8% 3.1% 6.5% 4.2% 3.3% Bayesian: 6.3% 5.3% 12.8% 0.5% 0.7% 4.8% 4.9% 0.1% Consensus: 9.5% 16.8% 16.3% 8.6% 4.4% 7.9% 7.6% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/19/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 66 68 69 68 68 68 69 71 72 72 71 77 83 94 89 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 64 63 63 63 64 66 67 67 66 72 78 89 84 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 59 58 58 58 59 61 62 62 61 67 73 84 79 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 50 50 50 51 53 54 54 53 59 65 76 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT