* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 60 64 67 69 69 68 66 65 64 67 70 73 77 84 79 V (KT) LAND 50 56 60 64 67 69 69 68 66 65 64 67 70 73 77 84 79 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 67 72 78 78 76 74 74 77 79 77 75 73 70 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 15 20 18 19 22 20 14 19 20 32 26 37 39 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -4 -3 0 1 1 0 1 -1 0 1 -1 0 4 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 295 284 288 305 319 334 343 341 349 296 291 269 273 292 285 299 340 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 145 149 155 155 157 158 165 166 163 153 150 149 151 140 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 144 147 154 154 154 151 155 153 147 134 131 130 131 121 111 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.4 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 45 49 55 58 67 72 76 68 58 51 46 48 40 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 14 15 14 13 12 10 10 11 13 15 19 23 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 18 11 9 6 7 11 8 37 35 19 32 36 52 88 72 200 MB DIV 20 29 -10 2 19 30 19 10 28 35 65 38 52 60 34 0 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 1 0 1 5 -3 4 5 7 10 15 8 5 0 1 LAND (KM) 1106 1110 1074 981 907 794 479 260 300 367 491 661 837 918 905 974 992 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.8 18.9 20.0 21.2 22.6 24.1 25.7 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.2 52.5 53.9 55.3 58.2 61.2 64.0 66.3 68.2 69.5 70.2 70.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 11 9 8 9 10 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 31 40 51 42 61 72 86 62 64 51 40 23 26 22 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -12. -12. -10. -7. -3. 2. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 19. 18. 16. 15. 14. 17. 20. 23. 27. 34. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 49.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 10.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.69 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.67 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.47 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.1% 44.2% 31.6% 22.8% 14.1% 28.2% 25.2% 23.6% Logistic: 35.8% 49.1% 58.3% 44.3% 10.5% 15.7% 5.3% 3.6% Bayesian: 19.2% 38.1% 39.8% 3.6% 3.3% 12.0% 13.1% 0.2% Consensus: 25.4% 43.8% 43.2% 23.6% 9.3% 18.7% 14.5% 9.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/18/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 3( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 60 64 67 69 69 68 66 65 64 67 70 73 77 84 79 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 60 62 62 61 59 58 57 60 63 66 70 77 72 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 55 55 54 52 51 50 53 56 59 63 70 65 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 45 45 44 42 41 40 43 46 49 53 60 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT