* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 49 54 58 60 60 58 61 63 66 67 64 64 61 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 49 54 58 60 60 58 61 63 66 67 64 64 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 52 57 59 58 57 59 62 62 60 56 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 9 13 18 20 23 24 14 17 17 28 26 30 33 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -6 -5 -1 0 0 -3 1 -1 3 0 -2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 17 15 319 288 295 320 332 340 342 343 306 276 252 256 291 289 274 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.1 29.0 28.7 29.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 142 144 152 157 158 155 163 164 166 153 152 148 155 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 137 139 142 151 156 155 149 154 153 151 136 134 130 135 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 51 48 49 49 49 52 59 59 64 70 69 60 53 49 43 50 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 12 12 12 12 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 26 31 12 4 10 13 8 -10 12 21 5 13 16 35 57 200 MB DIV 21 19 18 32 11 24 24 21 10 21 52 65 39 37 56 43 27 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 2 -4 2 6 8 5 8 7 15 0 LAND (KM) 1149 1138 1134 1128 1139 960 864 551 317 280 353 446 614 814 911 872 904 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.7 17.8 18.8 19.9 21.0 22.2 23.7 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.3 49.3 50.5 51.7 54.5 57.5 60.5 63.2 65.7 67.8 69.5 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 33 28 29 45 41 57 68 89 70 63 55 44 22 36 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. 23. 26. 28. 31. 32. 29. 29. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 47.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.79 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.84 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.76 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.24 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 37.0% 24.5% 14.9% 10.8% 18.0% 18.5% 23.3% Logistic: 29.6% 49.9% 51.6% 33.8% 10.9% 23.1% 12.3% 7.2% Bayesian: 8.9% 17.3% 42.5% 2.1% 1.4% 15.1% 18.3% 0.5% Consensus: 16.8% 34.8% 39.5% 16.9% 7.7% 18.7% 16.3% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/18/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 49 54 58 60 60 58 61 63 66 67 64 64 61 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 44 49 53 55 55 53 56 58 61 62 59 59 56 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 42 46 48 48 46 49 51 54 55 52 52 49 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 36 38 38 36 39 41 44 45 42 42 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT