* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/17/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 82 82 81 77 74 68 60 55 49 46 41 35 33 27 22 V (KT) LAND 80 80 82 82 81 77 74 68 60 55 49 46 41 35 33 27 22 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 83 85 86 87 81 66 51 42 39 39 39 38 38 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 28 25 29 37 41 54 44 36 23 26 28 37 25 29 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 2 0 4 13 8 2 5 0 4 0 13 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 222 224 209 204 211 200 220 204 238 233 227 238 253 297 281 325 285 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.2 22.9 20.6 15.9 20.2 19.8 19.2 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 145 146 149 146 137 129 125 116 93 83 72 81 80 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 123 124 128 128 120 111 104 97 81 75 68 73 72 71 69 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.9 -52.8 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -55.5 -57.1 -56.8 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 47 43 39 42 51 52 59 65 59 47 41 46 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 33 34 35 38 43 44 40 37 35 35 34 33 33 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 58 74 81 119 127 85 48 19 39 91 102 46 -80 -91 -109 200 MB DIV 22 59 67 68 78 75 28 59 49 83 73 59 7 -12 -17 -46 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 -10 -21 -14 -33 -18 -6 15 27 2 -20 -96 -98 -2 71 88 LAND (KM) 491 516 540 580 633 788 987 909 776 661 632 486 535 749 1007 1278 1559 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.2 31.4 32.3 33.8 35.8 37.9 39.6 41.1 42.4 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.7 73.9 73.0 72.0 71.0 68.2 64.8 61.9 60.0 58.5 55.8 52.0 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 11 14 16 14 12 12 14 16 15 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 25 29 33 28 14 11 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -30. -35. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -11. -17. -24. -28. -30. -28. -26. -26. -27. -27. -28. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 14. 15. 11. 7. 3. 2. 1. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -12. -20. -25. -31. -34. -39. -45. -47. -53. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.5 74.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.10 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.88 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.14 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.68 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 503.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 12.5% 8.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 4.9% 3.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/17/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 8( 21) 6( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 82 82 81 77 74 68 60 55 49 46 41 35 33 27 22 18HR AGO 80 79 81 81 80 76 73 67 59 54 48 45 40 34 32 26 21 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 75 71 68 62 54 49 43 40 35 29 27 21 16 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 65 62 56 48 43 37 34 29 23 21 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT