* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 57 62 62 62 63 61 60 58 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 57 62 62 62 63 61 60 58 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 41 46 50 53 54 54 52 49 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 17 17 11 10 10 13 14 22 25 29 33 29 27 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 0 -1 -5 0 -4 1 -2 1 -3 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 250 224 232 250 243 226 248 221 227 213 248 252 263 257 263 250 261 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 153 154 154 163 155 147 143 142 138 134 135 141 138 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 136 134 136 134 140 131 122 117 116 113 110 111 115 113 111 112 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 5 8 5 7 4 5 3 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 50 54 58 59 59 53 47 41 34 31 31 29 32 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 19 1 -2 9 -11 -15 -34 3 26 34 50 20 10 1 -15 200 MB DIV 19 14 16 7 1 31 11 56 8 29 13 -7 -9 -18 0 -1 24 700-850 TADV 1 1 -3 0 4 8 5 1 3 -3 -1 -6 -14 -14 -1 3 2 LAND (KM) 431 428 353 268 183 101 56 70 87 109 117 136 183 222 288 326 383 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.9 29.1 30.1 30.7 31.1 31.6 32.0 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.2 75.9 76.6 77.4 78.2 79.4 80.3 80.6 80.6 80.2 79.6 78.6 77.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 72 70 59 48 51 72 48 34 28 26 21 21 22 33 34 29 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 32. 37. 37. 37. 38. 36. 35. 33. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.0 75.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.66 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.41 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.81 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.4% 9.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 9.6% 5.8% 3.0% 0.9% 6.9% 14.6% 16.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.8% 5.0% 3.4% 0.3% 2.3% 9.1% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/13/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 57 62 62 62 63 61 60 58 57 54 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 48 54 59 59 59 60 58 57 55 54 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 42 48 53 53 53 54 52 51 49 48 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 39 44 44 44 45 43 42 40 39 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT