* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/07/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 29 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 29 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 29 27 25 23 21 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 14 16 24 31 42 47 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 -1 2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 242 246 254 247 251 246 253 251 254 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.0 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 107 107 109 113 115 119 121 122 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 34 33 31 29 29 27 28 29 31 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 11 10 9 7 6 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -43 -42 -57 -50 -47 -45 -41 -34 -17 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 0 4 10 19 7 11 7 17 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 3 4 8 3 5 1 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1406 1474 1548 1626 1707 1872 1839 1660 1497 1362 1237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.9 130.0 131.2 132.4 133.5 135.7 137.7 139.5 141.2 142.7 144.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -4. -15. -26. -35. -37. -39. -40. -43. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -14. -21. -27. -31. -36. -39. -43. -48. -54. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.4 128.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##