* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/07/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 52 55 58 62 63 57 44 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 52 55 58 62 63 57 44 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 52 54 56 57 56 54 48 39 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 11 12 14 14 20 13 17 30 47 66 81 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -6 -3 -1 -4 -3 3 1 0 3 2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 53 69 89 102 135 183 179 195 210 221 230 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.5 27.6 27.2 25.4 23.0 19.1 15.3 13.8 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 138 144 144 131 127 111 96 82 76 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 121 119 124 122 110 107 96 86 76 73 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -50.8 -47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -1.4 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 38 39 41 45 46 45 34 34 44 55 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 22 20 17 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -11 -37 -32 -41 -60 -63 -23 -33 -13 -18 37 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -28 -8 -6 -10 17 36 47 40 61 62 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 0 -3 -8 -2 -26 -29 -49 -67 -101 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2067 1926 1787 1675 1566 1343 1129 991 1029 1280 1348 699 394 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.4 32.2 32.9 33.6 35.4 37.6 40.0 42.9 46.1 50.0 54.5 59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.4 42.8 44.1 45.2 46.3 47.4 47.0 45.0 41.2 36.1 29.3 20.7 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 12 10 10 12 17 22 27 32 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 13 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 17 CX,CY: -9/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -3. -12. -24. -35. -42. -47. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -3. -8. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 18. 12. -1. -21. -34. -42. -45. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.5 41.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.75 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.49 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.73 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.7% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 14.9% 11.3% 2.7% 1.1% 3.9% 4.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 9.7% 6.9% 0.9% 0.4% 4.5% 5.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 50 52 55 58 62 63 57 44 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 49 52 55 59 60 54 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 47 50 54 55 49 36 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 43 47 48 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT