* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/05/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 36 35 38 41 45 48 49 52 52 53 42 26 26 29 V (KT) LAND 40 37 36 36 35 38 41 45 48 49 52 52 53 42 26 26 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 37 35 33 33 31 31 33 37 41 45 48 47 41 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 28 32 32 33 21 2 5 10 9 14 16 22 40 66 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 2 4 15 8 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 214 216 217 218 217 109 89 126 192 193 204 202 209 207 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.6 28.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.0 25.1 21.8 17.4 15.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 125 129 132 152 138 136 136 130 126 109 90 77 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 110 113 116 120 137 122 118 115 109 107 95 81 72 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 45 44 43 45 41 42 41 44 44 47 52 57 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 18 17 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 23 20 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 30 24 20 14 20 -13 -40 -57 -68 -55 -46 -35 -33 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 14 4 1 13 -27 -17 -9 0 48 36 60 80 60 60 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 19 14 17 13 5 0 0 -11 -1 1 14 9 31 -57 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1921 2001 2081 2180 2281 2316 2025 1763 1516 1294 1111 1027 1124 1394 1351 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.4 26.3 28.2 30.1 31.9 33.9 35.9 38.1 40.6 43.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.6 36.4 37.1 38.0 38.9 41.0 43.5 45.7 46.9 47.3 46.2 43.5 39.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 11 14 18 22 24 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 4 9 10 20 10 9 8 6 11 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 15. 14. 12. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -2. -7. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -5. -2. 1. 5. 8. 9. 12. 12. 13. 2. -14. -14. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.9 35.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 37 36 36 35 38 41 45 48 49 52 52 53 42 26 26 29 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 37 40 43 47 50 51 54 54 55 44 28 28 31 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 38 41 45 48 49 52 52 53 42 26 26 29 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 32 35 39 42 43 46 46 47 36 20 20 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT