* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 91 93 94 93 86 77 69 60 54 47 39 31 24 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 80 87 91 93 94 93 86 77 69 60 54 47 39 31 24 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 87 90 91 90 85 77 68 60 52 45 39 33 27 22 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 7 4 6 3 8 5 5 6 19 30 29 28 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 3 3 2 5 1 2 0 3 4 3 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 329 353 321 313 298 299 266 295 286 279 218 215 221 235 229 241 255 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.6 25.6 24.9 24.0 23.9 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 142 142 141 138 129 119 112 103 101 103 102 103 105 106 105 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 62 61 55 53 50 49 46 47 39 34 29 21 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 26 27 26 24 23 20 18 15 13 9 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 5 5 17 41 50 42 22 1 -1 -9 -11 1 -8 -27 -17 200 MB DIV 53 51 41 5 15 6 -5 -17 -30 0 28 11 -20 2 -28 -20 -27 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 4 5 1 2 -6 -1 0 3 6 0 -1 -10 -13 -6 LAND (KM) 708 717 737 769 786 832 912 1021 1108 1253 1405 1528 1598 1686 1766 1834 1919 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.7 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.4 115.1 115.8 116.5 117.9 119.5 121.4 123.5 125.8 127.9 129.9 131.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 9 10 10 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. -30. -33. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 6. -3. -11. -20. -26. -33. -41. -49. -56. -62. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.32 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.45 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.43 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.4% 25.6% 24.4% 21.1% 14.3% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.7% 20.4% 15.5% 10.6% 2.7% 6.1% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.3% 16.3% 13.5% 10.7% 5.7% 9.1% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##