* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 53 54 59 64 69 76 82 88 91 96 96 95 89 88 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 53 51 56 62 66 74 79 86 88 76 45 35 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 44 52 56 62 71 81 91 96 81 46 35 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 9 12 9 7 6 5 7 9 9 12 17 19 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 1 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 -3 1 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 188 218 244 245 232 249 214 287 232 323 273 286 253 274 243 262 239 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 28.7 30.9 30.9 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 152 149 152 155 154 155 155 157 159 146 170 170 168 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 147 146 141 142 144 141 140 139 140 139 126 159 158 140 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 12 12 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 7 4 9 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 47 48 55 60 60 64 65 72 71 72 64 59 49 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 9 9 10 10 13 15 19 20 24 24 24 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -9 -1 -2 -16 -20 -43 -27 -27 24 -2 31 9 39 9 6 200 MB DIV 39 36 7 4 2 10 24 15 47 15 50 7 73 17 60 22 21 700-850 TADV 0 4 2 4 4 11 3 2 4 -4 4 4 7 7 2 4 10 LAND (KM) 419 286 154 27 11 152 234 411 523 527 315 133 -24 -34 -5 -111 -155 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.6 20.2 21.8 23.5 25.0 26.2 27.2 28.0 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.7 63.8 64.8 65.7 66.6 68.1 69.7 71.2 72.9 74.8 76.9 79.1 81.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 8 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 59 77 68 72 60 46 51 63 55 50 25 26 46 13 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. 1. 5. 6. 10. 9. 8. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 14. 19. 24. 31. 37. 43. 46. 51. 51. 50. 44. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 62.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.75 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.73 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 378.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 21.8% 12.1% 9.8% 9.1% 18.2% 24.2% 32.7% Logistic: 5.8% 21.9% 16.9% 11.1% 4.2% 10.7% 13.1% 21.7% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.7% 3.4% 0.1% 0.2% 1.6% 2.5% 0.4% Consensus: 4.5% 16.5% 10.8% 7.0% 4.5% 10.2% 13.2% 18.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 53 51 56 62 66 74 79 86 88 76 45 35 30 28 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 47 52 58 62 70 75 82 84 72 41 31 26 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 42 47 53 57 65 70 77 79 67 36 26 21 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 38 44 48 56 61 68 70 58 27 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT