* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 54 55 59 62 66 72 76 80 87 88 89 89 86 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 54 53 56 59 64 69 74 78 73 47 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 49 51 50 53 57 64 73 82 90 92 51 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 8 11 12 14 8 10 3 8 2 8 2 13 12 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 2 -2 0 -4 -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -7 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 170 202 218 244 251 256 288 257 211 275 50 298 234 252 222 241 225 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.5 28.5 30.3 30.8 30.6 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 152 152 150 154 152 154 152 157 160 143 170 170 170 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 147 148 147 142 143 141 141 137 141 141 124 148 155 149 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 5 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 45 45 51 57 60 63 65 70 71 73 66 61 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 17 17 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 -7 -6 -1 -1 -9 -31 -36 -33 9 3 27 9 23 -15 -14 200 MB DIV 22 42 41 16 4 0 33 10 28 29 30 28 47 28 31 29 20 700-850 TADV 1 0 6 5 6 4 6 1 5 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 477 400 269 144 44 85 123 278 426 485 325 137 -1 -79 -70 -135 -237 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.6 19.1 20.7 22.3 23.9 25.3 26.5 27.6 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.1 64.1 65.1 66.1 67.8 69.4 70.9 72.7 74.7 76.8 78.9 80.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 51 44 43 63 79 62 61 47 56 69 51 50 24 9 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 24. 26. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. -6. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 14. 17. 21. 27. 31. 35. 42. 43. 44. 44. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 62.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.72 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.85 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.75 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 33.8% 20.3% 14.7% 11.7% 23.8% 23.3% 32.1% Logistic: 14.2% 32.2% 29.9% 27.4% 10.9% 21.4% 15.5% 21.8% Bayesian: 2.6% 7.8% 15.2% 0.9% 0.6% 3.8% 1.5% 0.3% Consensus: 8.4% 24.6% 21.8% 14.4% 7.7% 16.3% 13.4% 18.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 54 53 56 59 64 69 74 78 73 47 33 29 27 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 50 53 56 61 66 71 75 70 44 30 26 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 44 47 50 55 60 65 69 64 38 24 20 18 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 36 39 42 47 52 57 61 56 30 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT