* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 55 52 47 43 32 25 17 20 21 23 23 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 55 52 47 43 32 25 17 20 21 23 23 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 54 51 46 40 33 27 23 21 20 20 20 20 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 19 19 18 28 34 42 34 38 27 16 13 21 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 -1 5 6 1 0 3 3 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 316 306 291 296 303 255 270 271 262 247 231 222 249 310 308 277 273 SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.4 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.9 26.5 26.5 25.8 25.1 24.6 22.6 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 129 127 128 128 122 126 129 133 129 129 122 115 110 89 77 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.9 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 57 57 61 61 61 63 61 61 69 69 66 57 56 62 66 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 16 15 16 11 9 5 9 10 11 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -31 -32 -25 -26 -16 -23 -42 -40 -18 -15 -21 -24 -29 0 7 2 200 MB DIV -14 -7 -17 -13 -17 8 12 9 44 51 42 32 22 12 16 6 17 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -12 -8 6 5 7 13 14 19 14 5 5 10 10 9 LAND (KM) 1890 1727 1564 1411 1259 990 743 503 321 298 427 626 881 1163 1460 1758 2043 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.0 21.1 22.7 24.7 26.9 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.1 138.6 140.1 141.5 142.9 145.4 147.7 150.0 152.2 154.0 155.1 155.6 155.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 11 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 5 1 0 1 3 0 1 2 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -24. -27. -28. -28. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -10. -14. -19. -13. -12. -10. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -17. -28. -35. -43. -40. -39. -37. -37. -41. -49. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.9 137.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.39 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.51 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 13.8% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 4.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##