* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 58 52 44 40 34 32 27 24 24 24 23 22 21 21 V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 58 52 44 40 34 32 27 24 24 24 23 22 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 66 61 55 47 42 38 34 31 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 35 39 39 40 43 37 44 43 35 29 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 3 -3 -1 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 255 257 254 258 261 263 266 268 278 278 290 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 139 141 144 145 145 148 145 147 147 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 51 50 51 51 49 48 48 46 42 41 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 14 12 10 12 10 11 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 2 7 2 6 18 13 21 25 16 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 27 37 34 23 24 60 20 43 -19 -26 -40 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 12 12 9 8 9 4 4 5 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 453 352 282 277 333 478 485 540 619 713 813 913 1020 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.7 154.0 155.4 156.8 158.1 160.6 162.7 164.4 165.8 167.0 168.1 169.1 170.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 13 12 12 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 13 24 29 25 27 27 32 25 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -13. -17. -23. -26. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. -36. -38. -39. -39. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -17. -23. -31. -35. -41. -43. -48. -51. -51. -51. -52. -53. -54. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.9 152.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 479.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##