* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/31/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 72 72 67 64 61 57 51 48 43 40 35 31 27 22 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 72 72 67 64 61 57 51 48 43 40 35 31 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 72 71 68 64 59 53 47 41 36 32 27 22 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 22 26 26 27 19 16 16 19 20 23 24 28 32 35 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 4 -4 -4 -2 -2 2 4 2 4 3 2 7 6 3 6 SHEAR DIR 312 336 345 342 354 355 349 320 294 302 298 291 288 279 265 257 248 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.4 27.7 26.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.6 26.6 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 155 151 150 142 126 134 131 127 131 131 127 130 134 138 139 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 67 67 63 58 59 60 62 62 60 58 61 63 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 18 20 19 21 21 20 19 18 17 16 14 10 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 15 29 24 16 7 4 -6 -2 -2 -6 -6 -2 -15 -13 -27 -18 -14 200 MB DIV 105 122 73 26 29 4 1 4 17 -18 -2 -40 -9 -13 -20 0 39 700-850 TADV -15 -20 -14 -12 -13 -11 0 1 -6 0 1 0 5 2 7 7 6 LAND (KM) 1697 1753 1818 1886 1960 2106 2258 2097 1790 1508 1218 938 637 335 97 -2 -12 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.3 124.5 125.8 127.0 129.7 132.4 135.3 138.1 140.7 143.4 146.0 148.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 13 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 24 18 19 16 0 23 9 0 3 5 1 4 10 12 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 2. 2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -22. -27. -30. -35. -39. -43. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.6 122.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.58 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 7.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 13.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 3.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##