* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 71 76 83 85 82 76 73 65 61 54 46 40 35 30 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 71 76 83 85 82 76 73 65 61 54 46 40 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 66 69 75 78 78 76 71 65 59 52 44 36 30 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 7 12 13 19 17 13 14 17 12 24 29 24 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 9 2 -2 -1 0 0 2 1 8 5 1 9 8 2 SHEAR DIR 6 359 344 346 332 344 349 2 344 312 315 296 286 299 268 260 250 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.4 27.8 26.4 26.8 26.6 26.1 26.5 26.4 25.9 26.4 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 154 156 150 144 129 134 131 126 130 129 123 128 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 70 72 68 61 54 53 51 53 54 53 51 55 59 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 23 25 25 26 25 27 26 27 25 22 20 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 11 9 22 34 33 24 34 23 29 39 48 38 26 -1 -3 200 MB DIV 87 84 81 93 106 54 48 16 20 28 5 0 -27 -23 11 -2 25 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -13 -12 -10 -9 -16 -9 -4 2 1 2 3 -1 1 1 10 LAND (KM) 1507 1585 1671 1733 1800 1941 2095 2255 2130 1811 1514 1231 951 661 407 194 52 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.5 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 120.0 121.3 122.6 123.8 126.4 129.1 132.1 135.0 137.9 140.6 143.2 145.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 13 13 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 31 38 31 16 16 1 20 9 0 2 2 0 2 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 10. 8. 9. 6. 2. -0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 28. 30. 27. 21. 18. 10. 6. -1. -9. -15. -20. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.1 118.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 10.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.69 8.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.33 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 9.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.28 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 52.7% 40.9% 28.0% 18.6% 31.2% 22.3% 13.1% Logistic: 11.1% 30.8% 18.9% 13.9% 3.1% 5.5% 2.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 12.8% 36.0% 27.4% 15.7% 1.0% 5.0% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 13.7% 39.8% 29.1% 19.2% 7.6% 13.9% 8.5% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##