* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 76 80 83 80 75 64 53 44 35 34 32 32 32 28 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 76 80 83 80 75 64 53 44 35 34 32 32 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 73 76 77 75 72 64 56 47 39 35 32 30 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 5 5 8 12 12 19 27 34 34 30 25 30 30 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 1 8 8 1 0 -2 -2 -1 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 139 240 242 258 261 296 293 274 250 254 260 260 273 268 260 248 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 150 149 144 141 134 140 141 136 140 139 141 142 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 63 60 55 53 51 50 48 49 51 54 55 59 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 20 21 20 18 19 16 14 12 9 9 7 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 1 12 13 31 34 20 8 2 -2 -2 3 7 10 9 13 18 30 200 MB DIV 63 43 53 50 48 73 28 17 1 14 11 36 34 24 47 74 62 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -5 -2 1 2 9 4 8 8 5 1 3 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 2163 2005 1848 1697 1547 1277 1039 805 589 402 259 303 472 475 560 694 869 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.0 137.5 138.9 140.3 141.7 144.2 146.4 148.6 150.8 153.1 155.4 157.8 160.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 18 20 21 11 10 5 10 11 12 30 21 28 21 28 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -9. -10. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 20. 15. 4. -7. -16. -25. -26. -28. -28. -28. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.3 136.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.56 12.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 11.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.74 11.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 -11.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 14.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 9.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.9% 64.6% 61.1% 54.6% 43.2% 52.0% 32.5% 12.6% Logistic: 36.3% 61.6% 46.0% 43.3% 21.4% 16.7% 5.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 19.1% 41.4% 19.3% 9.8% 5.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 29.1% 55.9% 42.1% 35.9% 23.3% 23.6% 12.7% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##