* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 113 107 100 92 73 56 44 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 113 107 100 92 73 56 44 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 111 103 94 84 65 49 36 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 12 14 18 25 30 30 31 29 23 23 19 16 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 4 4 7 14 8 11 10 6 7 3 -1 -1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 212 146 211 220 227 233 235 240 249 253 266 275 288 277 289 275 280 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.3 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.3 26.1 26.6 26.9 27.5 27.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 134 129 124 116 119 117 118 118 126 132 135 140 142 148 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 6 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 60 57 55 54 46 42 38 36 34 36 35 39 42 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 34 34 33 28 25 22 18 14 11 8 8 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 38 40 32 29 30 23 16 0 -7 -11 -15 -2 0 2 -2 -14 200 MB DIV 107 139 104 61 58 28 -4 -18 -21 -28 -31 -37 -16 -27 1 17 24 700-850 TADV 2 7 13 13 15 18 23 22 4 5 -8 -3 -7 -4 1 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1954 1991 2015 2035 2060 2127 2158 1900 1606 1291 978 668 354 93 199 332 402 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 17.4 18.3 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.1 128.0 128.9 129.8 130.6 132.4 134.3 136.7 139.5 142.5 145.5 148.5 151.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 14 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 14 29 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -19. -30. -40. -49. -56. -62. -66. -67. -68. -69. -71. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -8. -14. -22. -27. -31. -33. -31. -30. -28. -27. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -20. -28. -47. -64. -76. -89.-100.-108.-113.-112.-113.-110.-108.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.1 127.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.71 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 555.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##