* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 68 70 75 81 87 86 69 56 53 64 55 48 46 36 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 68 70 75 81 87 86 69 56 53 64 55 48 46 36 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 69 70 74 76 75 68 53 45 45 48 45 39 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 23 20 16 12 15 26 27 37 51 53 49 23 25 23 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -4 -2 -1 3 1 5 15 5 3 12 1 15 2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 5 354 338 314 285 241 202 187 194 193 214 253 284 332 356 44 49 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.1 24.9 23.7 23.0 21.4 17.8 18.7 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 122 121 122 116 108 100 97 89 76 76 77 81 84 91 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 108 106 105 106 104 99 92 89 81 70 70 70 73 75 80 85 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.0 -56.3 -56.4 -56.2 -55.8 -55.8 -55.2 -55.1 -55.9 -56.4 -57.3 -60.6 -61.2 -60.7 -60.1 -59.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 45 47 50 55 58 57 46 36 39 42 41 35 37 40 30 23 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 26 26 29 33 37 39 29 23 24 36 33 28 28 18 850 MB ENV VOR 108 94 78 75 77 44 81 135 128 164 83 6 -162 -192 -238 -211 -171 200 MB DIV -11 -13 -10 39 57 75 84 21 43 34 23 10 -29 -34 -78 -36 -32 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -3 0 5 14 7 -10 -29 -77 -82 -4 -56 -13 -22 -9 -24 LAND (KM) 1249 1205 1167 1190 1216 1435 1521 1224 928 961 1250 1578 1704 1639 1643 1666 1531 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.7 27.2 29.2 32.2 35.7 39.3 42.6 44.4 44.4 43.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.3 58.1 58.5 58.8 58.1 55.7 52.3 47.8 42.4 37.3 32.9 30.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 7 6 7 14 21 24 26 23 17 13 12 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 5 6 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -26. -30. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -22. -25. -26. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 17. 2. -7. -6. 10. 5. -2. -3. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 21. 4. -9. -12. -1. -10. -17. -19. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.5 56.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.54 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.63 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.44 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 14.7% 10.5% 9.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.6% 4.4% 3.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 5( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 66 68 70 75 81 87 86 69 56 53 64 55 48 46 36 18HR AGO 65 64 64 66 68 73 79 85 84 67 54 51 62 53 46 44 34 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 65 70 76 82 81 64 51 48 59 50 43 41 31 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 62 68 74 73 56 43 40 51 42 35 33 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT