* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/23/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 97 86 79 73 60 53 50 47 43 39 36 34 28 24 21 19 V (KT) LAND 105 85 62 46 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 96 62 46 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 30 32 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 206 211 237 248 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.0 28.4 28.4 26.9 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 150 151 135 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 3 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 64 61 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 12 4 5 6 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 53 58 54 38 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 80 85 50 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 29 37 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 113 -15 -164 -349 -402 -124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.7 23.6 24.6 25.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.7 105.7 104.6 103.1 101.6 98.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 15 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 23 17 16 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -10. -17. -24. -29. -34. -38. -40. -41. -41. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -17. -24. -24. -24. -24. -26. -28. -32. -35. -39. -42. -42. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -7. -8. -8. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -19. -26. -32. -45. -52. -55. -58. -62. -66. -69. -71. -77. -81. -84. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 21.7 106.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##