* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 46 41 32 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 46 41 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 47 42 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 21 30 37 43 47 49 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 1 -2 5 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 237 220 223 234 236 237 262 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 23.7 23.5 23.6 23.6 28.6 28.7 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 102 100 102 102 155 156 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 41 39 38 44 52 52 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 27 26 19 7 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 69 89 63 48 54 24 -20 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 44 66 41 13 18 25 41 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -6 -2 14 3 19 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 994 800 606 392 180 -15 -497 -712 -664 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.7 22.9 24.3 25.6 28.3 30.8 33.1 35.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.8 119.4 118.0 116.5 114.9 111.2 106.6 101.5 96.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 19 20 20 23 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 18 17 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -31. -43. -52. -57. -60. -65. -70. -78. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -18. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -37. -33. -41. -50. -56. -60. -65. -72. -79. -88. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.5 120.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##